37% of New York’s early votes comes from NYC, lifting Democrats’ spirits

New York City voters accounted for about 37% of the ballots cast in the state’s nine days of early voting ahead of Election Day, according to the state Board of Elections, welcome news for Gov. Hochul.

Strong turnout in the deep-blue city could buoy Hochul. The Democrat is running for a full term and has faced an unexpectedly fierce challenge from Rep. Lee Zeldin, the Trump-tied Republican nominee from Long Island.

The city is home to about 40% of the state’s registered voters. But it often sees light turnout relative to its voter rolls.

The Board of Elections reported that 432,634 New York City voters hit the polls for early voting, part of a statewide total of 1,178,674.

Though the share could shift significantly on Election Day, Democrats hailed the early vote numbers as an indicator that Democratic enthusiasm is strong.

[ NYC Voter Guide for Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 8 ]

“These numbers are very good signs for the Democrats,” said Bruce Gyory, a Democratic strategist. “But they’re not yet dispositive, because we don’t know what’s going to come out in the same-day turnout.”

Gyory added that if Election Day sends the city share down toward around 30%, the picture would darken for Hochul.

The New York State Democratic Party also reported that 62% of mail-in ballots came from Democrats. About 50% of registered voters statewide are Democrats.

Recent opinion polls have shown a tight race between Hochul and Zeldin, but the governor is still generally seen as the favorite. She rose to her post after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace last year.

New York City has become a crucial battleground down the stretch of the race, and both candidates spent Monday campaigning in the five boroughs.

For Zeldin to pull the upset, the conservative congressman would likely need depressed turnout overall in New York City and support from upward of 35% city voters, according to analysts.

The city is home to nearly seven Democrats for every Republican, providing a Blue Wall for Democrats in statewide elections. But Zeldin has worked feverishly to pick off disaffected Democrats, focusing heavily on crime.

The early vote numbers offer little insights into how many Democrats and left-leaning independents Zeldin has converted in the city. Still, Democrats received the sheer volume of votes as a reason for optimism.

“I’m feeling very good,” Rep. Jerrold Nadler, a Manhattan Democrat, said after campaigning with Hochul on the Upper West Side on Monday morning. “The early turnout numbers are very high. They’re very high in Democratic areas.”

Nadler, who has made a habit of offering sanguine predictions about how Democrats will perform in the midterms, said he expected Hochul would win — and by more than a razor-thin margin.

“I don’t think she’s going to win by 1 point,” he told reporters. “I think she’s going to win by 6 to 8. I think. I mean, a prediction’s what it’s worth. But that’s what I suspect.”