Alaska to determine if Sarah Palin or upstart Democrat Mary Peltola won special election for Congress

Alaska was set Wednesday to determine the winner in a special election for Congress between former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and a trailblazing upstart Democrat.

Ranked-choice ballots will decide whether Palin or Nancy Peltola, a member of a Native Alaskan tribe, will fill the seat left vacant when longtime Rep. Don Young (R-Ala.) died.

Peltola surprisingly led by a significant margin with about 40% of the first-choice votes, compared to 31% for Palin.

[ Sarah Palin trails in comeback bid for Congress ]

The winner will be determined by the second-choice picks of those who supported Nick Begich, a Republican who finished third with 28%.

Like last year’s New York City mayor’s race, election officials will eliminate Begich. Any of the ballots for Begich that did not rank a second candidate will be discarded.

Then officials will distribute the second-place votes from those who voted for Begich to either Peltola or Palin.

The count is expected to be done at 8 p.m. Eastern time.

Pundits are split over whether Peltola is likely to win enough of Begich’s second-place votes to hang on for the win.

Most analyses say that Palin would need to win about two-thirds of the Begich ballots to overcome Peltola’s fairly substantial lead.

Begich and Palin feuded bitterly during the top-four election, in which a fourth candidate dropped out. That might suggest that his supporters wouldn’t be likely to back Palin.

On the other hand, Alaska is a staunchly Republican state and some Begich voters may not vote for Team Blue on principle.

Peltola has already dramatically outperformed expectations and is within shouting distance of becoming the first Native Alaskan to win statewide office.

She emphasized her support for abortion rights, which has proved to be a blockbuster issue for Democrats since the conservative Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that gave women the constitutional right to choose.

The winner of today’s count will only serve the remaining months of Young’s term.

Peltola, Palin and Begich all qualified for a ranked-choice rematch in the November election to represent the Last Frontier in Congress for the next two years.