ARMs Offer Lower Mortgage Rates, But Know the Risks

In response to rising mortgage rates, many of today’s homebuyers have been turning to adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs. The share of mortgages with an adjustable rate jumped from around 3% at the beginning of 2022 to nearly 13% last October – levels that hadn’t been seen since 2008, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Although the ARM share has pulled back to around 7% in 2023, it remains well above the previous couple of years when mortgage rates – and the demand for ARMs – were historically low.

Adjustable-rate mortgages typically come with lower initial interest rates and monthly payments than traditional fixed-rate mortgages, but the repayment terms can change over time. Since your mortgage rate may rise, there’s an inherent risk that your monthly payments and overall loan costs will be higher when the fixed-rate period ends.

“Many clients in the marketplace are taking advantage of the cash-flow benefits that the lower rate provides,” says Matthew Vernon, head of retail lending at Bank of America.

If you’re considering an ARM for your next home purchase, here’s what you need to know.

The most common type of adjustable-rate mortgage is a hybrid ARM, which begins with a fixed-rate period before the rate can adjust. This type of ARM is “a great option for clients that either may sell or plan to refinance within those periods,” Vernon says. Here’s how it works:

Additionally, there are interest-only ARMs and payment-option ARMs. With an I-O ARM, you pay only the interest for a certain number of years – after that, your payment will increase because you’ll begin paying the principal balance as well as the interest. And importantly, your principal balance will remain the same during the interest-only period, limiting your ability to build equity.

With a payment-option ARM, you choose from multiple payment options each month, such as traditional principal and interest payments or interest-only payments.

With so many homebuyers today turning to adjustable-rate mortgages, you may be wondering if this home loan option is right for you.

First, you need to consider where rates may be at the end of your fixed-rate period. But since no one can predict long-term interest rate trends with complete accuracy, there’s always the risk that rates may be much different in five or 10 years than you expected.

You should also carefully consider your unique financial situation when choosing between a fixed-rate mortgage and an ARM, according to Peter Boomer, executive vice president at Guaranteed Rate.

“It’s worth the risk if an individual doesn’t plan on being in their home long-term, if the individual thinks rates may go down in the future, or if the individual is considering substantially paying down their mortgage in the near future,” says Boomer.

Additionally, Boomer says that homebuyers may consider an ARM if they expect a substantial boost in their income before the next adjustment period, when monthly payments are likely to increase. Still, it’s important to communicate with your lender about your home loan options, since there’s no one-size-fits-all strategy that applies to all mortgage applicants. Here are a few questions you should ask during the process:

“A borrower should work with their lender to do a full comparison of all ARM loan options against fixed-rate options to find the right match,” says Boomer.

Mortgage rates today are much higher than they were a year ago – or even a few months ago – and that applies to both adjustable and fixed rates.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was above 7% in August 2023, according to the MBA – that’s up from 3.33% at the beginning of 2022. Similarly, the average rate for a 5/1 ARM increased from 2.45% in January 2022 to over 6% in August 2023. And while ARMs may offer the lowest initial rates of any mortgage product now, that rate can adjust significantly by the end of the fixed period.

In terms of where mortgage rates are headed, a few industry groups offer research-backed predictions. MBA predicts in its August 2023 Mortgage Finance Forecast that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will decline over the next several years, dipping to 6.2% by the end of 2023, 5% by the end of 2024 and 4.6% by the end of 2025. Wells Fargo puts the average conventional mortgage rate at 6.65% in 2023 and 5.88% in 2024.

While an adjustable-rate mortgage may help you save money initially, not all homeowners are willing to take on the additional risk that rates will rise during the life of the loan. But thankfully, ARMs aren’t your only way to handle rising interest rates. Here are a few alternative strategies to consider:

Lock in your mortgage rate as soon as possible. Most lenders let you lock in your mortgage rate when you have a signed home purchase agreement, typically without an additional fee for a 30-day period. This can protect your rate from rising if market conditions change while you close on your home. You may be able to extend your rate lock for a longer period for a fee, typically a set percentage of the loan amount. Additionally, a rate float-down option lets you take advantage of lower rates during the rate lock period, but this may come at a cost.

Save up for a bigger down payment. Coming prepared with more cash toward your home purchase can lower your risk to the lender, which can lead to lower mortgage rates. If you can afford to wait and save up 15% down instead of 5% down, for instance, you may qualify for more favorable rates. And if you can afford a 20% down payment, you’ll also save on private mortgage insurance.

Choose a shorter repayment term. The popular 30-year mortgage term may offer you the lowest monthly payments, but interest rates tend to be higher for this home loan option. By switching to a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, you may be able to lock in a much lower interest rate and save significantly on interest charges over the life of the loan since you’re making fewer interest payments.

Compare mortgage rates across multiple lenders and loan types. Mortgage interest rates can vary greatly between lenders, which means it can pay to shop around for the lowest rate possible before formally applying. Mortgage preapproval will slightly lower your credit score, but you can minimize the negative impact by limiting your rate shopping to a 45-day period. You should also compare rates for different mortgage options, such as FHA versus conventional. If you’re a veteran, you may qualify for the lowest rates through a VA loan.

Buy mortgage discount points. If you plan on staying in your home for a long time, such as 10 years or more, it may be worthwhile to purchase discount points through the lender. This is a set percentage of your loan amount that allows you to lower your mortgage rate. Make sure you do the math to determine where your break-even point is, which is where the interest savings offset the cost of mortgage points.

Plan to refinance in the future. Buying a home when mortgage rates are at 7% may seem like a tough pill to swallow, but you might be able to take advantage of refinancing if rates drop in the months or years after you buy. Refinancing is also a way to switch from an adjustable mortgage rate to a fixed one. Just remember that refinancing comes with closing costs, which can eat into the savings of securing a lower rate.