As NYC’s budget deadline looms, City Council projects $1.8B more in revenue than Mayor Adams’ projections

The New York City Council’s latest budget forecast estimates the city will take in $1.8 billion more in revenue than what Mayor Adams’ administration has projected over the next two fiscal years — an updated fiscal prediction Council leaders intend to use as leverage as the July 1 budget deadline approaches.

For months, Council economists have projected higher revenues than Mayor Adams’ team of bean counters. In March, they estimated the city would bring in $5.2 billion more in tax revenue than the mayor’s office expected at that time.

Since then, both the mayor’s Office of Management and Budget and the Council have rejiggered their budget estimates with rosier revenue projections based on the most recent data coming in — but Monday’s numbers from the Council are more optimistic than the mayor’s and show the Council continues to view the administration as lowballing its projections.

Council Speaker Adrienne Adams and Councilman Justin Brannan, the body’s Finance Committee chairman, said in a statement Monday that the latest projections show the city’s economy is resilient and “built to withstand challenges without compromising investments in essential services for New Yorkers.”

“Responsible budgeting means investing in the services that ensure New Yorkers succeed, not cutting programs that undermine their health and safety,” they said. “As a Council, we will continue to prioritize delivering a budget that protects the fiscal health of our city and meets the needs of all New Yorkers and communities.”

The battle over the budget, which is now set at $106.7 billion for the 2024 fiscal year, has hit a fever pitch over the last several months.

Council members and advocates have decried many of Mayor Adams’ efforts to find savings through what are known as Programs to Eliminate the Gap, or PEGs, which they contend will cut too deeply into vital services, including education, libraries and the city’s social safety net.

The Council Speaker slammed the mayor last month for the cuts, saying they would “cause a lot of harm to New Yorkers in need.”

But Mayor Adams has for the most part stuck to his overall footing on spending and has argued that the migrant crisis — which he projects will carry with it a $4.3 billion price tag — has made the city’s fiscal outlook far too volatile not to find efficiencies. A spokesperson for the mayor did not immediately respond Monday morning when asked about the Council’s latest revenue projections.

The number of commercial vacancies in the city’s real estate sector also has administration economists jittery. As working remotely has become more prevalent — both during and after the COVID pandemic — businesses that once rented commercial office space are no longer doing so as much — a disruption that many economists believe will continue to erode the city’s tax revenue base.

Brannan acknowledged that concern, but said the city has proven resilient in its post-COVID recovery, which would indicate that the doom-and-gloom predictions over commercial vacancies are being overstated.

“No one is suggesting that we spend like there’s no tomorrow, but the economy has proven to be more durable than people thought. For instance, we have 99% of our jobs back that we lost during COVID. That wasn’t supposed to happen until this time next year, and it already happened,” he said.

“We’re at a crossroads here and what we do in this budget is going to matter for the future — the immediate and the long-term future of the city. The money is there to make the investments we need to continue this recovery, and I think we’re only going to recover if we invest in these crucial areas.”