Biden heads across the Atlantic to rally the West at a pivotal moment for Ukraine — and his presidency

Military officials say Russia’s weeks-old invasion has reached a stalemate, leading to fears over how Putin will proceed. Among the topics for leaders to discuss this week is how to respond should the Russian President decide to use nuclear or chemical weapons or launch a massive cyberattack.

“Now Putin’s back is against the wall. He wasn’t anticipating the extent or the strength of our unity. And the more his back is against the wall, the greater the severity of the tactics he may employ,” Biden warned during remarks to business leaders before departing Washington.

Biden looks to spur allies to further action against Russia

Biden hopes to emerge from an intensive day of meetings Thursday with some new actions to announce alongside his partners: fresh sanctions on Russia, steps to cut off its oil and gas profits, or new announcements of military or financial assistance to Ukraine.

He plans to slap sanctions this week on hundreds of Russians serving in the country’s lower legislative body, an official familiar with the announcement said, setting off what are expected to be many new steps to punish Russia for its war in Ukraine.

The US had already sanctioned some members of the body, but this week’s announcement will expand the list.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan said a day ahead of Biden’s departure that the President would make a slew of new announcements, including “a joint action on enhancing European energy security and reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian gas at long last,” as well as “longer-term adjustments to NATO force posture on the eastern flank.”

Biden will also make further commitments on human rights “to respond to the growing flow of refugees” from Ukraine.

And Sullivan said a new package of sanctions would be unveiled Thursday “in conjunction with our allies.”

“One of the key elements of that announcement will focus not just on adding new sanctions, but on ensuring that there is a joint effort to crack down on evasion, on sanctions busting, on any attempt by any country to help Russia basically undermine, weaken or get around the sanctions,” he said, calling that “an important part of this next phase.”

Even a Polish proposal to establish an international peacekeeping force in Ukraine, which Warsaw is expected to raise during Thursday’s meeting, has been met with skepticism from US officials, who say Biden is opposed to any scenario that would pit American troops directly against Russians.

Still, there remain some items for leaders to adopt. White House and European officials have spent the past week in intensive discussions to develop a menu of options, and Biden discussed the summit with his counterparts from the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy on Monday.

“They can do a couple of things. One, they can turn on the spigot. The weapons are flowing. But the spigot can be bigger. It can be wider open. There can be more going in there,” said William Taylor, a former US ambassador to Ukraine.

“All the kinds of things we talk about in terms of anti-air, air defense, anti-armor, the Stingers, all those can go in. That aperture needs to be wider. That’s number one. Number two, tighten the noose. There are still sanctions that are not in place yet.”

That includes expanding the list of Russian banks cut off from the SWIFT international banking system, imposing sanctions on more Russian oligarchs or politicians, or taking further steps to cut off Russia’s energy profits.

Biden announced earlier this month that the US would ban imports of Russian oil, natural gas and coal, though those products represented only a small portion of American energy use. Far more impactful would be a European move in the same direction.

The White House has been working with other major oil- and gas-producing countries to divert supplies to Europe, and the European Union announced steps in conjunction with Biden to reduce its dependence on Russian energy. The topic is expected to arise in conversation at this week’s summits in Brussels.

Biden unlikely to visit Zelensky as diplomacy ramps up

More perplexing for the leaders gathering in Brussels this week could be the halting attempts at diplomacy between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators, which are viewed skeptically by many in Washington and Europe.

Zelensky has recently indicated he is willing to consider some concessions to Russia to help bring an end to the violence, including a neutrality policy — albeit one underpinned by robust security guarantees — raising more questions about the state of talks and specific elements of any peace deal that may be under consideration.

NATO leaders have been discussing whether and how Zelensky should participate in this week’s summit. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, which has allowed the US and other members to set limits on how far they are willing to go in defending it. Yet Zelensky has proved a powerful international voice and leaders are mindful of his response to their decisions.

Since last month, Zelensky has been asking Biden to visit Kyiv, suggesting it would make for a dramatic show of support. But the option was never explored at the White House.

“Any president of the United States traveling into a war zone requires not only security considerations but also an enormous amount of resources on the ground, which is always a factor for us as we make considerations,” press secretary Jen Psaki said this week. “It was a decision made about what would be most effective on the trip.”

Ukrainian officials said Biden could show his support in other ways.

“We wish him to come to Ukraine, but unfortunately that’s not the case this time,” Igor Zhovkva, deputy head of Zelensky’s office and his chief diplomatic adviser, told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour this week.

“We are thankful to the US President for the level of resistance he’s now rendering. Really — this is a clear sign of support, not only politically and by words, but in terms of military equipment, in terms of weapons and ammunition, in terms of sanctions.”

Still, Zhovkva said leaders at this week’s summit could make even more efforts at getting Ukraine what it needs to sustain the battle against Russia, including anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems and fighter jets. And he said Biden’s example would matter most as the world looks to him for leadership.

“This is where the political position, the political will of the US matters,” Zhovkva said. “We do know which countries do possess this weapon. Sometimes they look at the US, they look at the position, they start to play pingpong. Again, the will and courage of US President is what matters now.”