Climate impact assessments should not discount ‘hot’ models

Some climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sixth assessment report (AR6) predict more warming from the doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (a measure known as equilibrium climate sensitivity, ECS) than do previous reports. Zeke Hausfather and colleagues propose excluding those models with ECS above 5 °C from climate-impact studies, claiming that high-sensitivity models “do a poor job of reproducing historical temperatures over time” (see Nature 605, 26–29; 2022).

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