Could N.Y. Gov. Hochul’s struggles threaten Democrats in swing House races?

Rep. Lee Zeldin has surged in his Republican bid to take down Gov. Hochul. Recent polls have shown the New York Democratic governor’s lead dwindling to single digits, as voters focused on crime and inflation take stock of their alternative: a Trump-tied Republican from Long Island who has wrapped his campaign in a pledge to toughen the state’s criminal justice system.

Still, no major poll has found Zeldin leading the race in deep-blue New York, where registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1.

The most immediate fear for Democrats, and hope for Republicans, may not be who will sit in the Executive Mansion in January, but how Zeldin’s rise reflects on a suite of key House races that could determine control of Congress.

“The margin in the gubernatorial makes a big difference,” said Jeff Liszt, a Democratic pollster who has advised campaigns for Hillary Clinton and former President Barack Obama.

“I don’t think there’s anybody that seriously believes that Zeldin is going to overtake Hochul,” Liszt said. “I think that the bigger question is what kind of margin Hochul is going to win by, and what that, in turn, suggests for the competitive congressional races.”

The congressional map in New York is woven with battlegrounds from the Finger Lakes to the eastern tip of Long Island after a Democratic gerrymander was rejected by the courts and an independent expert crafted new districts.

The races for nine of New York’s 26 congressional districts are rated as competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

With the fate of the House sitting on a razor’s edge in an unpredictable election season, New York’s congressional contests could be decisive.

[ New York Gov. Hochul raises a whopping $11M in last quarter ahead of Election Day ]

Not every Democratic campaign appears to be sweating the struggles of Hochul, who has campaigned lightly but may still turn around her polling woes.

And talk of ticket-splitting has grown this year: Swing New York voters frustrated with crime may take out their wrath on local officials, for example, while still protesting the fall of federal reproductive rights in national races.

Evan Roth Smith, a political consultant whose firm is working on Rep. Patrick Ryan’s Democratic campaign in a swing Hudson Valley district, said he questions whether the twists of the governor’s race will leave an imprint on high-spending House races.

“It’s hard to overstate how tough and high-profile all of these House races are,” he said. “They do eclipse the gubernatorial election in the places where they’re being run.”

But Republicans, who appear to be riding a wave of discontent over raging inflation, see reasons for down-ballot optimism stemming from Hochul’s flagging lead.

Nicholas Langworthy, chairman of the New York State GOP, said fear about rising crime is driving a unique “unity” message among Republican ranks, upending the adage that “all politics is local.”

“Whether you’re running for Congress in Rochester or in Suffolk County, the issues aren’t different,” Langworthy said. “You’re talking about inflation. You’re talking about crime. You’re talking about quality of life.”

Any success Zeldin has against Hochul when the election arrives Nov. 8, Langworthy said, could flow down the ballot.

“Lee being as strong as possible at the top of the ticket is certainly going to help,” Langworthy said.