Opinion | Biden should not let Venezuela’s regime run out the clock on democracy

However, Mr. Maduro — buoyed by support from Cuba, Russia, Iran and Venezuela’s armed forces — clung to power while the Trump strategy fizzled. Now, the Biden administration is trying a new plan based on negotiations between the regime and the opposition, potentially facilitated by newly elected leftist leaders such as Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro. Mr. Petro was furious that Mr. Guaidó had entered Colombia without authorization, potentially intruding on the conference he was hosting, as well as angering Caracas, with which Mr. Petro is on good terms. The United States helped extract its erstwhile ally to Miami, lest a worse fate befall him, either in Colombia or back home, where, he says, the regime has been placing increasing pressure on him and his family.

The drama did serve one purpose: to refocus public attention on the dire economic, political and human rights situation in Venezuela and the results, such as they are, of President Biden’s new strategy. In essence, the plan is to cajole Mr. Maduro into agreeing on conditions for a free and fair presidential election in 2024, by offering to lift sanctions and renouncing regime change as a U.S. policy objective. A first round of talks this past November in Mexico City produced agreement to put $3 billion in frozen Venezuelan assets in a United Nations-administered fund for humanitarian aid — and an understanding that there would be more talks about political matters such as the election. At a minimum, the regime should accept the electoral reforms laid out in a 2022 European Union report. The Biden administration sweetened the pot by allowing Chevron to resume doing business in Venezuela’s oil fields on a limited basis.

Yet since November, the Maduro regime has refused to resume talks and instead has raised its demands. It insists on immediate disbursement of the U.N. fund, which has been slowed because of unavoidable procedural and legal considerations; the release of a regime-affiliated money launderer currently detained in the United States; and an end to the International Criminal Court’s investigation of Venezuela for torture and other crimes against humanity. The Biden administration has appropriately refused. Washington can also claim that the Bogotá meeting Mr. Petro convened last week at least did not demand immediate sanctions relief, helping the United States to maintain that leverage; the 20 countries attending did back free and fair elections via the Mexico City negotiations.

The fact remains that Mr. Maduro has managed to waste precious months and appears willing to waste more. By relaxing oil sanctions, the Biden administration confirmed that Venezuela’s oil gives it a strong bargaining chip in post-Ukraine-war geopolitics. Mr. Petro’s rise, and that of like-minded presidents in countries such as Brazil and Chile, has tilted regional diplomacy in Venezuela’s favor. Meanwhile, the democratic opposition is supposed to hold a presidential primary in October, but lacks unity; Mr. Guaidó is just one of several figures jostling to run against Mr. Maduro, even though the regime has banned him from elected office. The country’s plight calls for a much more urgent U.S. effort, especially given the pressure that mass migration out of Venezuela has put on the entire hemisphere. And yet, for now, Mr. Maduro holds the high cards.

In the wake of Mr. Trump’s admittedly failed efforts to restore Venezuela’s democracy and prosperity, Mr. Biden billed his plan as a more realistic approach. Time is running out to prove it.