Opinion | How to raise the debt ceiling to own the libs

None of this panned out, and Democrats have been slow to adjust as the failure of their initial strategy became clear.

The reason it didn’t pan out is that today’s Republicans aren’t like the tea party Republicans of 10 years ago. They are more eager to hand liberals defeats and less eager to see major reductions in the size of the federal government. The Democrats’ unrealistic insistence that there could be no negotiations over the debt ceiling gave the Republicans an opportunity to notch a political victory. The fact of a deal has now largely replaced the substance of a deal as the Republican objective. This version of the GOP savors the fight but is flexible about its resolution.

Which suits the skill set of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) just fine. In contrast to Biden, McCarthy grasped the political situation correctly, to an extent that surprised and elated his doubters. Republicans hung together and passed their own debt ceiling increase — one that did not touch entitlements — and it reset the politics of the fight in their favor. After Republicans acted, the pressure was on Democrats to make a counteroffer. Democrats started to second-guess one another, with some urging Biden to make a prime-time address that would supposedly galvanize public opinion. (It’s not clear any televised presidential speech has ever moved opinion enough to matter on Capitol Hill, but one certainly wouldn’t now.)

The policy victories in the reports of the emerging deal are not major, and do not need to be. They will surely not be enough to win the votes of McCarthy’s most conservative troops. But those conservatives do not appear to be driven to block a deal, or force McCarthy out of his job for relying on Democrats to pass it.

The formula for passage, then, is for McCarthy to get enough Republicans to take their political win while enough House Democrats accede to the reality that they will have to eat their words about negotiating with hostage-takers. McCarthy would then not only have survived Republican defections but also have strengthened his power and position by a modest but real political victory.

Passage of a deal — again, if it happens — would not be a political disaster for Biden. He won’t see the political gains he hoped to reap from Republican incompetence, division and extremism. He won’t have established once and for all a new principle that both parties have a moral obligation to raise the debt ceiling without conditions. Progressives would grumble about the climbdown but will not abandon him over this. And he would avoid the political and economic damage that a default would have brought. This isn’t a terrible outcome for him, or for the country.

If a deal passes, it will probably set spending levels through the rest of this Congress. In that case, the job of the legislature will be effectively over. Further fiscal fights would be postponed until 2025. Bring on the 2024 election!