Indeed, the world’s eyes have been opened to a despot’s perverse plot to crush a sovereign nation every step of the muddied way. Most importantly, everyone is on notice that this attack has been unprovoked and unjustified.
Looking back over the past several weeks, the crisis in Ukraine presented a need for diplomatic, military and economic decisions by the United States and its allies in Europe on a daily basis. To inform those decisions, policymakers have been relying on the foreign intelligence collection and analysis capabilities of the United States and its close partners.
Had the attack not happened at all, the intelligence community and the US government could have been accused of crying wolf — or even provoking hostilities. Even when done with the best intentions, public disclosure of intelligence that does not pan out as predicted opens the intelligence community up to allegations of misleading the public. Worse yet, the intelligence community could be accused of lying. It takes years to rebuild trust when disclosures are later undermined by facts.
A third and related risk — usually the one most cited by the intelligence community and its veterans — is that by declassifying information, the government may reveal sensitive sources and methods which are key to how it does its work. In this case, the intelligence material declassified and released by the Biden administration has been substantive and not technical.
Biden has told the American public and the world what the US government has learned, not how it has learned it. Still, a capable adversary could perhaps glean clues about the origin of the intelligence and change modes of communication or take enhanced efforts to thwart it.
In contrast, looking back over the past several years, the US presidential election of 2016 was a missed opportunity for the intelligence community to provide warning to the public. As early as 2014, the Russian government designed and implemented an effort to influence the US election by targeting election infrastructure and Americans’ use of online communications platforms.
This was a defensible position at the time, even if it turned out to be insufficient. It was consistent with the traditional role of the intelligence community, which is to provide advice and counsel to the president and policymakers behind the scenes, not to publish intelligence in real time.
In the present crisis, the Biden administration’s push forward on intelligence transparency this year prepared not only US policymakers, but the world, for what is currently transpiring. While the disclosures did not affect the Russian government’s behavior, they likely have affected the international community’s understanding and response, even beyond those close partners with whom the US typically shares sensitive information.
Continued releases of intelligence will be important in countering false Russian government narratives — and those of its surrogates. If done with deliberate purpose, analytical rigor and care, the risks outlined above are worth it.
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