Opinion | Why we should be paying attention to a showdown in the South China Sea

Filipinos celebrated a victory this week after two of their supply ships managed to push through a blockade of Chinese coast guard vessels to deliver provisions to a small force of marines stationed on an unlikely ocean outpost. The men are camped in the rusting hulk of a World War II ship that has been resting on a feature called the Second Thomas Shoal (or Ayungin Shoal, as it’s known locally) ever since the Philippine navy beached it there years ago to assert Manila’s presence in the region.

Here’s some footage of the showdown:

This latest conflict between the two countries reflects the hotly contested status of the South China Sea, which China claims almost entirely as its own — based on a self-declared “nine-dash line” sketched on Chinese maps hundreds of miles east and south of its island province of Hainan. The line is hotly disputed by the six other nations and islands that border the sea, which is home to fisheries and shipping lanes of huge economic and strategic importance. The stakes couldn’t be higher.

Over the past three decades, the Chinese have embarked on a vast military buildup in the area, constructing bases on remote atolls to support planes and ships. The United States and its allies, determined to push back against Beijing’s growing regional hegemony, have decided to send a message of support for Manila by dispatching a significant naval force to conduct a joint drill in the sea.

China’s efforts to dislodge the Filipinos from the shoal began earlier this year, when Manila accused Chinese coast guard ships of using lasers to blind the crew of a resupply ship headed for the shoal. In early August, Chinese vessels drove off another Philippine force by firing water cannons at them.

That action triggered an angry response from local authorities:

But the Chinese, who consider Second Thomas Shoal part of their own territory, are unapologetic. Indeed, they exacerbated Philippine indignation by insisting that former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte had recognized their claim during his term in office. Top Philippine officials insist there’s no evidence that Duterte — or anyone else in authority — ever made such a statement.

Despite the intensity of Philippine feelings, some social media users also acknowledge that their country can only do so much to counter China’s power in the region.

The Chinese also claim Mischief Reef, and have turned it into a major military base.

The Philippines says that Mischief Reef is part of its own territory — so, too, do Taiwan and Vietnam. Yet none of these three has yet found a way to slow China’s expansion. Can the United States and its allies counter Beijing’s growing dominance? The next few weeks of dangerous confrontation might offer some clues.