The four battleground states expected to determine control of the U.S. Senate

Four battleground states will likely determine control of the U.S. Senate for the next two years, and with Election Day looming, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada are all too close to call.

Bottom line: Democrats will need to win three of the four races to maintain control of the Senate. By comparison, the GOP only needs to win two of the four races.

GOP strategists are confident, buoyed by polls showing President Biden’s approval ratings remain underwater due in part to surging crime, sky-high inflation, and the overall grim outlook on the U.S. economy.

“Democrats are clearly on the defensive, and that’s bearing out as the campaign comes to a close,” said Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. “Their chances for gains don’t look realistic, so now you look to what you can preserve.”

Here’s where things stand in the key Senate races:

Pennsylvania, a perpetual swing state, is home to a Senate race that could decide control of the chamber and the fate of President Biden’s agenda.

Democratic candidate Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is recovering from a near-fatal stroke in May, once led Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Trump-endorsed television celebrity heart surgeon, by 10% in a race that is now the marquee matchup in the Senate ever since incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) announced his retirement. The latest polls show the candidates in a dead heat.

[ Oz and Fetterman both stumble in high-stakes Pennsylvania Senate debate  ]

The election comes barely two weeks after Fetterman had a shaky showing in his sole debate against Oz, struggling to complete sentences, jumbling words and fueling concerns in the party about his candidacy. However, he has since delivered a number of smooth speeches in campaign appearances around the state.

Oz has his own foibles, including being called a Hollywood liberal elite who lacks deep political roots in the state, having moved from New Jersey to run. The last campaign filings show he spent more than $20 million of his own money on his race.

The White House stressed that Biden — through his personal conversations with the lieutenant governor — believes Fetterman is physically capable of serving in public office, and cited analyses from independent medical experts who have said his halting speech did not indicate an issue with his cognitive functions.

“John IS Pennsylvania,” said the president.“ John leaves nobody behind.”

A fiercely competitive Senate race headlines the ballot for Georgia voters. Democrat Raphael Warnock is trying to win a full six-year Senate term against Georgia football icon and Republican Herschel Walker. Although Walker has been dogged with questions about his personal and business life that include allegations he pressured former girlfriends to have abortions, he has remained competitive against Warnock, backed by national Republican groups.

[ Herschel Walker flashes honorary badge again for nationally televised interview ]

With the race rated a pure toss-up, Democrats need moderate swing voters in the Atlanta suburbs to decide Walker is just not ready for the U.S. Senate.

One hiccup: If no one gets 50%, Warnock and Walker will face each other again in a December run-off that could ultimately decide control of the Senate.

Arizona has turned into a tight race as Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly tries to win a full term after nabbing the last two years of the late Sen. John McCain’s seat in 2018. He faces a tough challenge from Republican Blake Masters.

Kelly, a former NASA astronaut who succeeded in burnishing his moderate image, recently distanced himself from Biden, calling the U.S.-Mexico border “a mess” and saying his party doesn’t understand border issues.

Masters, by comparison, is trying to back away from some of the hard-line positions he took during the bruising GOP primary. He said there should be some limits on abortion but not a national ban, and conceded after a few prompts that Biden was the legitimately elected president and acknowledged that he hadn’t seen evidence the 2020 vote count was rigged.

[ Democrats have high hopes as midterms campaign kicks off with first mail-in ballots sent to voters ]

Though Libertarian candidate Marc Victor dropped out of the race this week and urged his supporters to vote for Masters, Kelly shrugged off the significance, telling reporters during a campaign stop at Arizona State University that “this race has always been between me and Blake Masters.”

The final Emerson College Polling survey of Arizona voters found Masters with 48% support and Kelly with 47%.

Like Democrats believe they will win Arizona, Republicans are loudly confident that a “red wave” is coming to Nevada.

The seat held by Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina in the U.S. Senate, is considered one of the Republican Party’s best chances to flip statewide offices around the country. Her opponent is Republican Adam Laxalt, whose name is well-known as a former state attorney general and grandson of former Sen. Paul Laxalt of Nevada.

[ 5 races that could decide the U.S. Senate, from Dr. Oz to Herschel Walker’s abortion scandal ]

While Laxalt has embraced Trump’s falsehoods about the 2020 election, political pundits don’t foresee victory for Cortez Masto as historic inflation and the cost of living remain key issues for voters.

“A lot of these consultants think if all we do is run abortion spots that will win for us. I don’t think so,” said veteran Democratic consultant James Carville, a Cortez Masto supporter, assessing the Democrats’ approach in the midterms

With News Wire Services