What’s next for Puerto Rico after historic House vote calling for binding vote on status

On the face of it, the Puerto Rico Status Act marks by far the most significant step toward ending the commonwealth’s status as a de facto U.S. colony in more than a century.

The watershed bill, which passed the House of Representatives last week by a 233-191 margin, calls for a binding plebiscite on the island to choose its future status.

Lawmakers with roots in Puerto Rico cheer the bill as an irreversible move to finally give self-determination to the Caribbean island of U.S. citizens with deep and unshakable ties to New York City.

But the reality is far more complicated.

For one thing, the bill isn’t likely to move forward anytime soon. There is no sign the Senate will even take it up, and Republicans will control the next House for the next two years.

Bitter decadeslong disputes among Puerto Ricans on the island and the mainland over the island’s status could also still prevent a permanent change to the current status anytime in the foreseeable future.

Here are details about the legislation and how it might affect Puerto Rico’s future.

The Puerto Rico Status Act calls for a 2023 plebiscite in Puerto Rico to determine the island’s future status, with three choices: statehood, independence and a hybrid known as free association.

Keeping the island’s current status as a territory, which critics say is no different from a colony, would not be an option.

If no option wins 50% support, a runoff plebiscite would make a final decision between the two top choices.

Unlike previous votes on the island, the results would be binding. They would also be self-executing, meaning that by enacting the status act, the U.S. is committing to implementing the results.

It seems very unlikely.

The bill now goes to the Democratic-held Senate, which would have to pass it in the waning days of the year.

Besides nearly insurmountable logistical issues, the bill would need 60 senators, including at least 10 Republicans, to overcome a filibuster.

If the bill does not pass this year, Republicans will control the House after Jan. 1, effectively giving them the power to block consideration of the bill.

Some Republican lawmakers support the bill, and more than a few support statehood for Puerto Rico.

But the GOP appears far from ready to embrace a process that could change the balance of power in Congress and presidential elections, as statehood for Puerto Rico would do.

Despite the uncertainty, the bill is undeniably a watershed moment for Puerto Rico.

It marks the first time that supporters and opponents of statehood for the island have agreed to a common framework for determining a future status.

Even if the bill is not enacted soon, they say it will become entrenched as the only recognized path to change.

That could mobilize future support especially since most Puerto Ricans on the island and the mainland believe the status quo is not sustainable.

Theoretically, that’s what the plebiscite would find out.

Puerto Ricans are deeply dissatisfied with the current status, which many blame for myriad problems including rampant corruption, a flailing economy, crushing public debt and a lack of control over key decisions.

But they are deeply divided over the island’s future.

Broadly speaking, supporters of statehood say the lack of representation in Washington is the root cause of the island’s woes.

A state of Puerto Rico would have two U.S. senators, an estimated five House representatives and at least seven electoral votes in presidential elections to make its case to the rest of the nation. It would need to be treated equally to every other state.

Backers of independence and free association, on the other hand, say Puerto Rico’s unique history and culture mean it should never be just another American state.

They hope to keep U.S. citizenship permanently, but stress that the island needs to rule itself, not be a state that is inherently subordinate to the U.S. government.

The bill’s passage was greeted by euphoria by lawmakers on both sides of the debate over statehood, a sign that it could be far more than a symbolic end-of-year vote.

Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), a longtime advocate for statehood, said the bill unequivocally ends the “second-class citizen” status of 3 million Americans on the stunningly beautiful island that was taken over by the U.S. in 1898 after the Spanish-American War.

“What matters above all is not the particular status that the people of Puerto Rico ultimately choose,” said Torres, whose Bronx district has the nation’s largest population of people with roots on the island. “What matters is their right to choose that status.”

Lawmakers of Puerto Rican descent presided over the historic vote, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) who wielded the gavel for the final announcement of the bill’s passage.

Paying tribute to “America’s oldest colony,” Ocasio-Cortez noted that the bill fleshes out for the first time details of how independence and free association would work, which would likely improve their chances of winning a potential plebiscite.

Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-N.Y.) spoke emotionally about the long-deferred dreams of generations of Puerto Ricans to chart their own destiny.

“Puerto Ricans are strong,” declared the Brooklyn lawmaker often called “La Luchadora” or the fighter. “They have been kicked out of their home and yet managed to succeed and flourish in cold and foreign places.”

“We are here today for the people on the island,” she added.