What’s Next for Turkey?

Erdogan’s grip is loosened, not broken

Turkey’s nail-biter of an election will go to a runoff, officials said, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan showed he was still a formidable political force. Although he fell just short of an outright majority, with 49.5 percent of the vote, signs point strongly to yet another Erdogan victory in two weeks.

His main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, received 44.9 percent of the vote. A third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.2 percent, and his right-wing supporters are likely to vote for Erdogan in the runoff, analysts say. Erdogan’s party and its allies also maintained a commanding majority in the parliamentary vote after stepping up nationalist rhetoric.

However, my colleague Ben Hubbard reported that Erdogan’s failure to secure an outright majority this weekend indicated that some voters had grown tired of his financial management and drastic consolidation of power. The presidential runoff is the first in Turkish history.

Turkey has been struggling with a sinking currency and painful inflation that exceeded 80 percent last year. “There’s very good reason to believe that state finances are under substantial stress,” Ben said, “and the bill is eventually going to come due, no matter who wins.”

A possible debt limit deal takes shape

A potential deal to raise the debt limit is coming into focus ahead of a meeting between President Biden and congressional leaders tomorrow. The topics of negotiation include fixed caps on federal spending, the recovery of unspent Covid-19 emergency funds, stiffer work requirements for federal benefits and rules for expedited permitting for energy projects. President Biden expressed cautious optimism, but Kevin McCarthy, the House speaker, said the two sides remained “far apart.”

The Treasury Department updated its estimate of when it would no longer be able to fulfill its debt obligations: as early as June 1.

College graduates are fleeing coastal cities

For most of this century, large urban areas — nearly all of them on the East or West Coasts — saw net gains of college graduates, even as they lost large numbers of workers without such degrees. But in a trend that began before the pandemic and has since picked up steam, expensive cities are now shedding educated workers too.

Data analyzed by The Times shows that many people leaving cities with high costs of living, like New York and San Francisco, are landing in major metros that are not quite so expensive, including Phoenix, Atlanta, Houston and Tampa, Fla. The pandemic-era rise of remote work has accelerated the shift.

The E.U. approved Microsoft’s bid to buy Activision

E.U. officials said they would allow the $69 billion deal after Microsoft, the maker of the Xbox console, promised that rival companies would have access to Activision titles, like the Call of Duty franchise, on new “cloud gaming” platforms.

The deal has revealed fractures among government regulators: Both U.S. and British regulators have moved to block the deal in recent months, reversing a trend in which they were more accommodating to Big Tech than the E.U.

More top news

A Cannes preview

The film festival on the French Riviera, which begins tomorrow, is where great auteurs are canonized and films try to leverage splashy debuts into success at the box office.

This year, several star-driven films will debut at Cannes, including “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” billed as Harrison Ford’s final appearance in his most iconic role, and “The New Boy,” featuring Cate Blanchett as a nun in her first role since “Tár.”

Wes Anderson, Martin Scorsese and Todd Haynes also have new films. And Quentin Tarantino, a Palme winner (for “Pulp Fiction” in 1994) and Cannes habitué, will hold a wide-ranging conversation that may touch on his upcoming final film.

A swimsuit cover at 81

It’s impossible to pigeonhole Martha Stewart: Homemaker-slash-lifestyle guru, entrepreneur-turned-white-collar criminal, Snoop Dogg’s unlikely BFF. And now something a little saucier, for the storied Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue: The hottie who can shuck her inhibitions as lightly as an ear of corn.

“It took a bit of vanity but also a bit of confidence,” she told The Times. “I thought, ‘If I’m feeling good enough physically and mentally to do such a thing, I’m up for it.’”

Have a badass evening.

Thanks for reading. Matthew Cullen will be back tomorrow. — Justin and Jonathan

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